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profil penelitian UAP
Michael Shermer
Penulis sains dan pendukung skeptisisme ilmiah
- JabatanPenulis sains dan pendukung skeptisisme ilmiah
Gambaran umum
Michael Shermer adalah penulis sains, sejarawan sains, dan pendukung lama scientific skepticism. Ia cofounder Skeptics Society dan Skeptic sejak 1992 dan selama beberapa dekade menganalisis pseudoscience, paranormal claims, conspiracy theories, religion, dan UFO. Ia memiliki MA experimental psychology dan PhD history of science. [S1][S2]
Pada Juni 2026 ia ditunjuk ke UAP Science Advisory Council (UAPSAC), dengan "study of anomalies" sebagai area. Inclusion penting karena ia termasuk peserta paling publicly sceptical dalam contemporary UAP discussion. [S3][S4]
Shermer tidak memulai dari asumsi UAP = non-human technology. Tulisannya menyatakan testimony, unresolved imagery, dan secrecy allegations belum memenuhi evidential threshold. [S5][S6]
Bagi UAPRAD, nilai utama bersifat metodologis: falsify preferred hypotheses, identify cognitive traps, dan menuntut discriminating evidence.
Skepticism sendiri bisa bias bila conventional explanations diterima dengan evidence lebih lemah.
Background
Shermer memiliki BA psychology Pepperdine, MA experimental psychology CSU Fullerton, dan PhD history of science Claremont Graduate University. [S1]
Ia cofounder Skeptics Society/Skeptic. [S2] Selama 18 tahun menulis monthly column untuk Scientific American. Books termasuk Why People Believe Weird Things, The Believing Brain, Conspiracy, dan Truth. [S1]
Expertise utamanya reasoning, belief formation, history of science, bukan radar/sensor engineering.
Scientific skepticism sebagai metode
Scientific skepticism bukan disbelief, tetapi calibrating belief sesuai quality of evidence dan mencoba disconfirm favoured hypothesis.
Shermer menekankan fallibilism, objectivity, disconfirmation, accountability. [S7]
Pertanyaan UAP:
- apa observation yang membedakan hypothesis?;
- apa yang falsify claim?;
- witnesses independent?;
- circular sourcing?;
- quantities measured atau inferred?;
- explanation membuat prediction baru?
Standar harus simetris.
UFO/alien claims
Shermer lama membahas UFO/alien claims. Pada 2026 ia memasukkan topik ini sebagai bagian sejarah Skeptic. [S8]
Extraterrestrial life plausible di universe tidak sama dengan specific aerial report adalah extraterrestrial technology.
The Age of Disclosure dan falsifiability
Dalam review 2025, Shermer mengakui beberapa officials/witnesses unusual tetapi menilai publicly inspectable evidence untuk alien technology/secret retrieval programmes tidak cukup. [S5]
Ia menyebut physical craft, biological material, atau independently testable material sebagai contoh transformative evidence.
Terhadap secrecy argument, Shermer menekankan falsifiability: claim ilmiah tidak boleh permanently protected oleh classification. [S6]
Sceptic juga harus menyatakan evidence apa yang akan mengubah mind.
Secrecy problem
Crash-retrieval supporters dapat mengatakan proof classified; sceptic mengatakan public evidence missing.
Masalah muncul jika classification menjelaskan semua absence dan tidak ada public result yang dapat count against hypothesis.
Shermer useful karena menuntut explicit update conditions.
Releases 2026
Setelah May 2026 releases, Shermer mempublikasikan strongly sceptical assessment dan mengatakan reviewed material tidak establish alien visitation. [S9]
Ini attributed interpretation, bukan complete government audit.
Underlying records tetap primary.
Analisis terbaik ketika mengidentifikasi specific weaknesses: poor imagery, ambiguous testimony, weak provenance, missing range, unsupported inference.
Galileo Project dan UAPSAC
Pada Juli 2026 Shermer mengatakan telah menjadi Galileo Project member selama lima tahun. [S10]
Ini menunjukkan involvement, bukan technical authorship.
15 Juni Skeptics Society mengumumkan UAPSAC appointment; DefenseScoop mengonfirmasi relation dengan ODNI-supported Governance Board. [S3][S4]
Role terbaik adalah adversarial review against groupthink, bukan predetermined "no".
Conventional hypotheses
Shermer mendiskusikan dusty-plasmoid model untuk historical luminous orbs/foo fighters. [S10]
Natural explanation tidak benar hanya karena conventional.
Ia tetap harus membuat predictions dan fit duration, motion, spectra, data.
Failure modes skepticism
Asymmetric standards adalah risk: alien technology perlu strong evidence, tetapi bird/balloon/plasma tidak boleh diterima hanya karena possible.
Historical base rates tidak resolve individual well-characterised case.
Ridicule dapat meningkatkan stigma dan menurunkan reporting quality.
Analisis bukti
Shermer UAP relevance terutama epistemological.
Ia tidak menghasilkan sensor dataset yang resolve major case.
Contribution adalah criteria of belief, falsification, authority vs measurement.
Test utamanya apakah ia juga menuntut positive evidence untuk conventional explanations dan update bila discriminating data muncul.
Yang telah ditetapkan
- Formal training psychology/history of science dan long scientific-skepticism career. [S1][S2]
- Cofounder Skeptics Society/Skeptic. [S2]
- Extensive UFO/alien/extraordinary-claim writing. [S5][S8][S9]
- UAPSAC anomalies member. [S3][S4]
- Melaporkan Galileo Project participation. [S10]
- Current position: public evidence belum establish alien visitation/recovered NHI tech. [S5][S6]
- Articulates falsifiability/evidential thresholds. [S6][S7]
Yang belum ditetapkan
- Scepticism tidak prove semua unresolved UAP conventional.
- Bukan aerospace-sensor specialist.
Penilaian keseluruhan
Michael Shermer valuable karena serious UAP research ecosystem butuh orang yang tugasnya menantang extraordinary claims.
Strongest principle: non-human technology memerlukan positive discriminating evidence; unresolved alone tidak cukup.
Standar yang sama harus diterapkan pada conventional explanations.
Tingkat keyakinan per proposisi
| Proposisi | Keyakinan | Dasar |
|---|---|---|
| Long scientific-skepticism career | Tinggi | Skeptics Society/biography |
| Relevant psychology/history training | Tinggi | Degrees |
| UAPSAC anomalies member | Tinggi | Council/DefenseScoop |
| Sceptical public evidence establishes alien visitation | Tinggi | Recent writing |
| Scepticism proves conventional origins | Rendah | Method ≠ evidence |
| Galileo Project participation | Sedang–Tinggi | Own statement |
| UAPSAC value adversarial/falsification reasoning | Tinggi | Role/method |
| Conventional explanation can be accepted without positive evidence | Rendah | Asymmetric standard |
Sumber
[S1] Michael Shermer — Biography. https://michaelshermer.com/bio/ [S2] Skeptics Society / Skeptic. https://www.skeptic.com/about_us/meet_michael_shermer/ [S3] Skeptic — UAPSAC appointment. https://www.skeptic.com/article/michael-shermer-named-to-white-house-uap-science-advisory-council/ [S4] DefenseScoop. https://defensescoop.com/2026/06/17/new-science-advisory-council-forms-to-help-us-government-resolve-the-uap-mystery/ *[S5] Shermer — The Age of Disclosure review. https://www.skeptic.com/article/the-aliens-are-here-again-a-review-of-the-age-of-disclosure/ [S6] Shermer — Falsifiability. https://www.skeptic.com/article/what-would-falsify-belief-in-aliens/ [S7] Shermer — Truth methodology. https://www.skeptic.com/article/what-is-truth-anyway/ [S8] Shermer — Skepticism history. https://www.skeptic.com/article/skepticism-attention-economy-outreach/ [S9] Shermer — 2026 files. https://www.skeptic.com/article/ufo-files-reveal-the-same-old-material/ [S10] Shermer — Galileo/foo fighters.* https://www.skeptic.com/article/mysteries-meteors-and-foo-fighters/